WILL RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE?

The massive build-up of Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine is of concern to everybody in Ukraine and also in the West.   Everybody is wondering whether Russia will invade and take control of the two regions in the east of Ukraine which have declared their independence and where fighting has been continuing since 2014 with some 15,000 dead so far.   Or whether Russia will take control of the whole of Ukraine.

My personal view is that President Putin will bide his time until all the fuss has died down and will then strike suddenly to invade Donatsk and Luhansk.  He will describe it as a liberation of the Russian citizens in those countries who are currently oppressed.   Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the West will not be obliged to defend it on that count.   The treaty of 1992 under which the West and Russia acquired all the nuclear weapons in Ukraine obliges signatories (USA, Britain, Russia, and Ukraine) to defend Ukraine against any attacks by other signatories.   However, the defence was noticeable by its absence in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and it seems unlikely that the West will step in either if Russia annexes the two provinces in eastern Ukraine.

Views expressed to me by people in Ukraine are different.   They feel Russia is putting on a show for President Biden and it will not actually invade.   They believe that if it does do so it will fail to achieve its objective and will retire hurt with a bloody nose, provided that the West supplies weapons to Ukraine.   They believe that the West will be obliged to help because if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine then the democracy of the entire western world is at stake.

In my view these views indicate too much optimism.   However, I do not think Russia will try to annex the whole of Ukraine

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