THE FIRST SHADOWS OF MORNING

UKRAINE

When will Putin invade Donetsk and Luhansk and make these regions of Ukraine part of Russia, declaring himself to be a liberator as there are so many Russian citizens in those regions of Ukraine – as he did in Georgia?

My guess is August this year when western politicians are on holiday.   He has withdrawn some of the troops amassed on the border between Russia and Ukraine but many are still there.

These two regions have a large majority of native Russian speakers, as did Crimea which Putin invaded in 2014 and called part of Russia.   The whole of eastern and southern Ukraine was of course part of Russia for several hundred years up to the First World War, and then the enlarged Ukraine was a Soviet satellite country until 1990.

Despite the 1993 agreement between Russia, the USA, the UK, and Ukraine in which the three major countries promised to defend Ukraine if any of the others invaded it, the only action taken when Russia invaded Crimea was the imposition of some sanctions against Russia.   Putin will reckon that the invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk will have a similar reaction in the west.

Putin will probably pause after invading Donetsk and Luhansk.   The unspoken threat will be that the rest of southern Ukraine along the coast of the Black Sea to Odesa will be the next target in order to link up with Crimea territorially.

Poor Ukraine!

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